EUR/USD Market Outlook: Strategic Window Forming for USD Sellers
Lamera Capital
2025-07-17
EUR/USD Market Outlook: Strategic Window Forming for USD Sellers
This week’s sharp rebound in GBP/USD has caught market attention, but at Lamera Capital, our focus turns to EUR/USD, where we see a potential dip unfolding. Our view? A modest pullback in the euro is likely in the coming weeks, offering USD sellers a better rate to convert.
As always, we don’t just look at today’s price, we time your conversion to the right moment, driven by macro data, technical structure, and strategic discipline. Read on for our full outlook, key levels, and how we plan to take advantage of this developing setup.
Following a 5 month rise in EUR/USD, we believe a rebound opportunity is presenting itself for Dollar sellers.
Unless EUR/USD breaks decisively above the 1.1650–1.1680 zone, the broader trend bias remains firmly to the downside in line with our view of a modest pullback.
Recent retail sales data suggests that the U.S. economy is still running hot, this means:
- Consumer demand is strong
- Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target
- There’s little pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates
This keeps interest rates high, which supports a strong U.S. dollar, and that typically pushes EUR/USD lower.
For now, the euro lacks a clear catalyst to sustain upward momentum.
- Eurozone PMIs and CPI remain soft
- The ECB is neutral or dovish, offering no lift to the euro
- Trump’s 30% EU tariff threats add uncertainty for the eurozone
Check out ECB outlook for complete and current insight.
Here the Key dates we’re tracking (Macro Events) this move is likely to take place between now and the end of July.
Date | Event | Impact on EUR/USD
Jul 24 | Fed Beige Book | Dovish tone = USD weakens, hawkish = USD holds firm
Jul 31 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | Dovish tone = EUR/USD bounce; hawkish = further drop
Aug 1 | Eurozone CPI (Flash Estimate) | Surprise upside = euro boost, soft = no help for EUR
Jul 24 | Fed Beige Book | Dovish tone = USD weakens, hawkish = USD holds firm
Jul 31 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | Dovish tone = EUR/USD bounce; hawkish = further drop
Aug 1 | Eurozone CPI (Flash Estimate) | Surprise upside = euro boost, soft = no help for EUR
What to Do If You’re Selling USD / Buying EUR
This is a potential window forming, but only if the Fed stays hawkish and eurozone data stays soft.
If EUR/USD dips toward 1.1440-1.1480, we consider this the ideal timing window for a USD→EUR execution.
If you want to be alerted in real time when that price zone is touched: Ask us to set a live rate alert for your target execution level.
This blog is part of Lamera Capital’s Strategic FX Briefing Series – where timing isn’t luck, it’s a strategy.