EUR/USD at 1.1580: Currency Market Outlook For Decision-Makers
Lamera Capital
2025-08-27
EUR/USD is hovering around 1.16. Three forces dominate the week:
- U.S.–EU tariff framework - a mild headwind for the euro.
- Fed signalling - emphasis on labour-market risks over marginal inflation beats, which raises USD volatility.
- French budget politics into early September - unhelpful optics for EUR.
The markets are once again seeing a re-test of 1.1580 on EUR/USD. This level has been tested several times now in August and if there were to be a clean break through the level it would points to 1.1502 which is the 100 day moving average. However, this level seems to be fiercely supported by EURO bulls and at the time of writing we have seen yet another rebound from this level of support.
Looking ahead, there is risk to the upside: softer U.S. data could squeeze price back to 1.1670.
Looking ahead, there is risk to the upside: softer U.S. data could squeeze price back to 1.1670.
Why this matters for currency conversion
In fast markets, timing decides the rate you actually achieve. Our role is to stage entries around key levels and data so your USD to EUR conversion skews in your favour.
We don’t just move money. We move it at the right moment. Every transaction is timed to work for you, not for us. We help all of our clients to secure the best possible exchange rate with minimal hassle. Whether you’re a business or an individual, we deliver the right time, the right support, and the right outcome so your cross-border payments are effortless and secure.
Price levels that matter
- Support: 1.1580; below there 1.1503 (100 day moving average)
- Resistance: As high as 1.1670
- Bias: Mild downside with choppy ranges; headline risk from U.S. data and French politics
Fed Chair Powell in one paragraph
Post-Jackson Hole, Chair Powell acknowledged downside labour risks and said policy may warrant adjusting. This follows the significant move we covered when EUR/USD hit 1.17 targets. If U.S. inflation cools, the USD can wobble and EUR/USD can squeeze higher; if not, downside resumes. Think optionality, not a promise.
A Day Traders Tactical Insight.
Stage it: Convert 30-40% now around 1.1580. Set limit orders at 1.1550 and 1.1515.
Trigger it: Complete the balance on a daily close < 1.1580; stand down if we print > 1.1675 before the key data.
Protect it: Use a 1-3Month forwards for near-term invoices; use the spot market to take advantage of any favourable dips for the rest.
Trigger it: Complete the balance on a daily close < 1.1580; stand down if we print > 1.1675 before the key data.
Protect it: Use a 1-3Month forwards for near-term invoices; use the spot market to take advantage of any favourable dips for the rest.
Convert in tranches on dips toward 1.1550/1.1515; complete on a daily close below 1.1580. Keep it simple. Keep it timed.
Dates to watch
Dates to watch
- Fri 29 Aug: U.S. PCE
- Tue 2 Sep: Eurozone flash HICP
- Thu 4 Sep: U.S. ISM / jobless claims
- Fri 5 Sep: U.S. nonfarm payrolls
- Early Sep: France confidence vote
These releases shape the near-term path: softer U.S. prints favour EUR/USD squeezes into 1.1630–1.1670; resilient data and tighter Fed rhetoric keep 1.1580/1.1520 in play.
One-line view
Lamera Capital: London’s alternative to banking for foreign exchange
With decades of combined FX, payments, and compliance experience, our dealing team delivers results you can rely on. From everyday transfers to complex multi-currency operations, we act only when conditions are optimal for you. If you’re searching for an EUR USD outlook, predicting where the EUR USD rate is heading, or simply asking what is the EUR USD rate, we turn noisy markets into clear, timed decisions.
Operating from our Cheapside office in the heart of London’s financial district, we serve clients across the UK and internationally. Our mission is simple: a superior alternative to traditional banking for foreign exchange, we strive to provide the best exchange rates, the fastest execution, and the most up to date expert guidance for the currency market that you can trust.
Strategy-driven approach built for EUR/USD conversions.
Our approach blends technical analysis, macroeconomic forecasting, and structured execution to capture the right market moments, we specialise in currency pairs like EUR/USD. We track central-bank policy, political risk, interest-rate trends, and market flows to form a clear EUR USD outlook and support decisions when predicting where the EUR USD rate is heading. The result: reduced risk, protected margins, and measurable value in volatile conditions.
Empowering global payments
We don’t just provide international payments. We use forecasting tools and help you convert your currency at the right moment. If you’re weighing the best time to sell USD to buy EUR, we stage conversions in tranches, set disciplined triggers, and use forwards where appropriate, so every transaction is timed to work in your favour. Whether you’re a business or an individual, we deliver the right timing, the right support, and the right outcome. Your cross-border payments are effortless, secure, and built around you.
Simplifying international finance
We’re building the future of global payments, faster, smarter, and more client-focused. Through advanced systems, trusted partnerships, and a commitment to acting when it’s best for you, we remove barriers in cross-border finance. Our next chapter: expanding our infrastructure and setting new standards for timing-led, outcome-focused payments worldwide.
Quick answers
- What is the EUR USD rate? We provide live quotes on request and context around the move, contact us to speak with an experienced fx dealer.
- Best time to sell USD to buy EUR? When your risk, timeline, and price targets align. We help you stage entries and use tools like forwards and market orders to execute at pre-defined levels.
- EUR USD outlook: We publish concise, decision-maker updates that translate macro data and policy signals into practical execution plans.