Sterling Outlook: GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD & GBP/NZD in Focus

 The Pound continues to rebound against the Canadian Dollar after finding solid footing at the 1.83 level last week. That bounce followed the Bank of England’s rate cut, which came with a surprisingly firm message: further easing in November isn't a done deal due to persistent inflation risks. 

This shift in tone has taken GBP/CAD back into the mid-point of its longer-term range, with eyes now on the 1.8670 resistance area. However, short-term momentum may stall before testing that level, particularly with U.S. CPI data looming on Tuesday, a potential volatility trigger for both GBP/USD and GBP/CAD via correlation. Minor dips should find support quickly as buyers remain active. 

Sterling is also pushing higher against the Aussie ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected.

GBP/AUD is testing resistance near 2.0680 a level that’s capped rallies since early July. A daily close above could open the door to 2.0750, especially if UK labour market data surprises to the upside.

That said, there’s a risk of a “sell the rumour, buy the fact” move from the Aussie if traders use the RBA decision as a trigger to take profits on recent AUD weakness. Australian wage and jobs data later in the week will add another layer of volatility.

GBP/NZD has been climbing steadily, now eyeing resistance around 2.2690. Momentum is positive, supported by last week’s BoE tone that hinted rate cuts might be paused sooner than markets expected.

For now, this looks like a short-term upswing within a broader sideways range. Breaking 2.2780 would be a bigger bullish signal, but near-term gains could be capped unless we see a strong positive surprise in UK jobs or GDP data.

As with the Aussie, Kiwi moves will be influenced by shifts in global risk sentiment, a rally in equities or commodities could give NZD a lift.

Sterling’s rebound is in play across all three pairs, but key data releases, especially U.S. CPI, UK jobs, and RBA guidance, will decide if this recovery extends or pauses.