GBP/USD Technical Breakdown Sept 22 2025
Lamera Capital
2025-09-22
Live rate: 1.3498
The British pound heads into the new week at a delicate balance point against the U.S. dollar. Following last week’s volatile post-Fed price action, GBP/USD is holding near 1.35 with the charts showing indecision and the calendar promising U.S.-driven volatility. With no tier-1 UK data in play, this is a USD-heavy week, and sterling will dance to the U.S. beat.
Moving Averages
- Short-term (5day): 1.3559 price is trading below the 5-day, showing near-term pressure.
- Medium (20day): 1.3522 price is just under it, acting as resistance.
- 50day & 100day: 1.3467 and 1.3483 - price is hovering around these levels, suggesting strong support here.
- 200day: 1.3112 - far below, confirming the longer-term trend remains bullish, though near-term bias is heavier.
Takeaway: GBP/USD is at a decision point, caught between medium resistance at the 20-day moving average and strong cluster support at the 50/100-day levels.
Fundamental Drivers This Week
Federal Reserve Dovish Shift
Last week’s Fed meeting delivered both a rate cut and a strong signal of more to come. Markets are now pricing in two further cuts this year (October and December) and additional easing in 2026. The Fed’s dovish tilt has chipped away at the dollar’s yield advantage, shifting the medium-term bias for GBP/USD higher, potentially toward the 1.3700 -1.3750 zone.
U.S. Data Calendar to Watch
U.S. Data Calendar to Watch
- Tuesday, Sep 23: PMI data and Powell’s speech (16:35). A dovish tone could send USD lower, boosting GBP/USD above 1.3550. For recent analysis of Fed policy and sterling performance, see our latest weekly FX outlook.
- Thursday, Sep 25: Final Q2 GDP and Durable Goods Orders. Strong data would lend USD support.
- Friday, Sep 26: Core PCE inflation (expected 2.9%). This is the Fed’s preferred gauge. A softer print fuels USD selling, while a sticky 3%+ reading revives dollar strength.
Bank of England Stays Cautious
The BoE left rates unchanged but hinted at the possibility of a year-end cut. This dampened sterling’s recovery, though compared with the Fed’s aggressive easing, the BoE still looks less dovish. That relative stance should support the pound over the medium term.
GBP/USD Trading Outlook
- Base Case (60% probability): Range trading between 1.3450 and 1.3550 until Powell and PCE data provide direction.
- Bullish Scenario (25%): Dovish Fed rhetoric and soft inflation data break resistance at 1.3560, targeting 1.3620 and 1.3700.
- Bearish Scenario (15%): Strong U.S. data or hawkish Powell comments break support at 1.3450, opening the way to 1.3400. For complementary analysis of GBP against the euro, see our GBP/EUR technical breakdown.
GBP/USD enters the week finely balanced. Technicals show indecision, with strong support and nearby resistance creating a tight trading range. Fundamentals, however, lean in sterling’s favour as Fed easing takes shape. The short-term outlook is rangebound, but the medium-term bias remains higher if the Fed continues to undercut the dollar’s appeal.