3rd November 2026 | Billy Martin
Why November matters
November opens with US mid-term elections, the Bank of England’s interest-rate decision and the US jobs report. Inflation figures then take centre stage as markets assess what the three central banks might do in December.
October’s UK Budget produced a calm market response, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank held rates. The immediate focus is whether the Bank of England raises rates on Thursday, and what it signals next.
If you only watch three dates this month, make them these:
Why November matters
November opens with US mid-term elections, the Bank of England’s interest-rate decision and the US jobs report. Inflation figures then take centre stage as markets assess what the three central banks might do in December.
October’s UK Budget produced a calm market response, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank held rates. The immediate focus is whether the Bank of England raises rates on Thursday, and what it signals next.
If you only watch three dates this month, make them these:
- Thursday 5th November: Bank of England decision and forecasts.
- Tuesday 10th November: US inflation.
- Wednesday 18th November: UK inflation, final eurozone inflation and Fed meeting minutes.
Markets react to surprises, not numbers alone. A high inflation figure can still weaken a currency if investors expected something higher. In the same way, a central bank can raise rates and still see its currency fall if it signals fewer further rises than markets had expected.
All times are UK time.
Forecasts reflect expectations and may change.
Week 1, 2nd - 6th November: elections, the Bank of England and US jobs
Tuesday 3rd November: US midterm elections
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested. The outcome will affect President Trump’s ability to pass legislation during his remaining two years.
Results arrive overnight UK time, so the dollar could react before London trading picks up on Wednesday. Markets will assess what the result means for taxes, spending and other policies. Close races may take longer to settle.
Wednesday 4th November: eurozone inflation, 10am
Results arrive overnight UK time, so the dollar could react before London trading picks up on Wednesday. Markets will assess what the result means for taxes, spending and other policies. Close races may take longer to settle.
Wednesday 4th November: eurozone inflation, 10am
October’s first estimate is forecast at 3.9%, up from September’s 3.8%. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was previously 2.5%.
A higher-than-expected figure could strengthen expectations of an ECB rate rise in December and support the euro. A softer figure could reduce the pressure to act.
Thursday 5th November: Bank of England decision, noon
A higher-than-expected figure could strengthen expectations of an ECB rate rise in December and support the euro. A softer figure could reduce the pressure to act.
Thursday 5th November: Bank of England decision, noon
Bank Rate stands at 3.75%, and economists widely expect an increase to 4% following September’s rise in UK inflation to 3.5%.
The Bank also publishes new forecasts, followed by Andrew Bailey’s press conference at 12:30pm. With a rise largely anticipated, the bigger question is whether its message points to more or fewer subsequent increases than markets expect.
A firmer outlook could support sterling. A cautious message, or a surprise hold, could see it fall. Watch the voting split alongside the forecasts.
Friday 6th November: US jobs report, 1:30pm
The Bank also publishes new forecasts, followed by Andrew Bailey’s press conference at 12:30pm. With a rise largely anticipated, the bigger question is whether its message points to more or fewer subsequent increases than markets expect.
A firmer outlook could support sterling. A cautious message, or a surprise hold, could see it fall. Watch the voting split alongside the forecasts.
Friday 6th November: US jobs report, 1:30pm
The report covers October hiring, unemployment and wages. Trading Economics’ consensus on 2 November showed around 65,000 additional jobs, following September’s initial 29,000, with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October, with two members favouring an increase. Stronger-than-expected hiring and wages could reinforce expectations of a December rise; weaker figures could challenge them.
Week 2, 9th - 13th November: US inflation and UK growth
Tuesday 10th November: US inflation, 1:30pm
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October, with two members favouring an increase. Stronger-than-expected hiring and wages could reinforce expectations of a December rise; weaker figures could challenge them.
Week 2, 9th - 13th November: US inflation and UK growth
Tuesday 10th November: US inflation, 1:30pm
September’s annual inflation rate was 3.7%, with core inflation at 2.6%.
Markets will look for evidence that price pressures are easing or spreading. A higher-than-expected reading could support the dollar, making dollar purchases more expensive for businesses holding pounds.
Thursday 12th November: UK growth, 7am
Markets will look for evidence that price pressures are easing or spreading. A higher-than-expected reading could support the dollar, making dollar purchases more expensive for businesses holding pounds.
Thursday 12th November: UK growth, 7am
The first estimate for July-September follows growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter.
A stronger result would suggest the economy is coping with higher borrowing costs. Disappointing growth could give the Bank of England reason to proceed more cautiously.
Friday 13th November: eurozone growth, 10am; US producer prices, 1:30pm
A stronger result would suggest the economy is coping with higher borrowing costs. Disappointing growth could give the Bank of England reason to proceed more cautiously.
Friday 13th November: eurozone growth, 10am; US producer prices, 1:30pm
The eurozone release updates the initial estimate of 0.4% growth in July-September. A meaningful revision could affect the euro.
US producer prices, which measure prices received by producers, rose 6.3% annually in September. Another higher-than-expected reading could signal further pressure on consumer prices.
Week 3, 16th - 20th November: UK jobs, inflation and Fed minutes
Tuesday 17th November: UK jobs and wages, 7am; US retail sales, 1:30pm
US producer prices, which measure prices received by producers, rose 6.3% annually in September. Another higher-than-expected reading could signal further pressure on consumer prices.
Week 3, 16th - 20th November: UK jobs, inflation and Fed minutes
Tuesday 17th November: UK jobs and wages, 7am; US retail sales, 1:30pm
UK unemployment stood at 4.7% in June-August, while annual pay growth excluding bonuses was 3.7%.
Stronger employment or wage growth could support expectations of higher UK rates. A sharper rise in unemployment would point towards caution.
US retail sales will show whether American consumers are maintaining their spending, helping markets assess growth ahead of the Fed’s next meeting.
Wednesday 18th November: three releases to watch
Stronger employment or wage growth could support expectations of higher UK rates. A sharper rise in unemployment would point towards caution.
US retail sales will show whether American consumers are maintaining their spending, helping markets assess growth ahead of the Fed’s next meeting.
Wednesday 18th November: three releases to watch
- UK inflation, 7am: October’s figures follow September’s 3.5% headline rate and 2.8% core rate. Markets will assess whether they support the Bank of England’s latest outlook or suggest a change of course.
- Final eurozone inflation, 10am: an update to the early estimate published on 4 November. It usually matters only if the figure is meaningfully revised.
- Fed minutes, 7pm: the October meeting record will show how widely inflation concerns were shared beyond the two members who voted for an increase. Policymakers’ views may have changed since.
Friday 20th November: UK confidence, retail sales and borrowing
Consumer confidence arrives just after midnight, followed by retail sales and borrowing at 7am.
September retail sales fell 0.4%, while October’s GfK confidence reading stood at -24. The new figures will help show how households are responding to pressure on their budgets.
Borrowing data cover October, so they should not be treated as a full test of the Budget’s measures.
Week 4, 23rd - 30th November: business surveys and US inflation
Monday 23rd November: preliminary business surveys
September retail sales fell 0.4%, while October’s GfK confidence reading stood at -24. The new figures will help show how households are responding to pressure on their budgets.
Borrowing data cover October, so they should not be treated as a full test of the Budget’s measures.
Week 4, 23rd - 30th November: business surveys and US inflation
Monday 23rd November: preliminary business surveys
The UK, eurozone and US flash PMIs ask businesses whether activity is increasing or decreasing. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
They provide a timely comparison between economies. Stronger UK results alongside weaker eurozone figures, for example, could support the pound against the euro.
Tuesday 24th November: German business confidence
They provide a timely comparison between economies. Stronger UK results alongside weaker eurozone figures, for example, could support the pound against the euro.
Tuesday 24th November: German business confidence
The ifo index rose to 90.2 in October from 89.9. Markets will watch whether that improvement continues. A disappointing result could raise concerns about Germany’s recovery and weigh on the euro.
Wednesday 25th November: US inflation and growth, 1:30pm; Beige Book, 7pm
Wednesday 25th November: US inflation and growth, 1:30pm; Beige Book, 7pm
PCE inflation, the measure used for the Fed’s inflation target, is the main release to watch. September’s annual rate was 3.6%, with core inflation at 3.1%. A higher-than-expected figure could support the dollar ahead of December’s decision.
The GDP release updates the estimate for July–September rather than measuring a new quarter. The evening’s Beige Book provides a broader account of US business conditions.
Thursday 26th November: Thanksgiving and UK financial stability
The GDP release updates the estimate for July–September rather than measuring a new quarter. The evening’s Beige Book provides a broader account of US business conditions.
Thursday 26th November: Thanksgiving and UK financial stability
Thanksgiving reduces US trading activity, although the global currency market remains open. Fewer traders can mean quieter trading or sharper moves when unexpected news arrives. US bond markets also close early on Friday.
The Bank of England publishes its Financial Stability Report at 10:30am. This examines financial-system risks and is separate from an interest-rate decision.
Monday 30th November: German inflation
The Bank of England publishes its Financial Stability Report at 10:30am. This examines financial-system risks and is separate from an interest-rate decision.
Monday 30th November: German inflation
Regional figures offer an early indication of price pressures ahead of the eurozone’s November inflation estimate on 1 December, an important release before the ECB’s next decision.
Looking ahead to Key Dates in December
Looking ahead to Key Dates in December
- Wednesday 9th December: Federal Reserve decision.
- Thursday 17th December: Bank of England and ECB decisions.
November’s figures will help shape these meetings, alongside further December data. The two decisions on 17 December make it another important date for businesses trading GBP/EUR.
What this means for your business
The calendar shows when exchange rates could move, not which date will offer the best rate.
For known payments, the useful question is how a less favourable rate would affect costs and margins, and how much uncertainty the business is comfortable carrying.
Some businesses buy currency in stages, fix a rate on part of their future payments through a forward contract, or use target-rate orders if a chosen level becomes available. Each approach has trade-offs and should fit the payment’s amount and timing.
If you would like to discuss how November’s events could affect an upcoming requirement, please speak to the Lamera dealing team.
This article provides general market information and is not a recommendation based on your individual circumstances. Release schedules and market expectations can change. Please speak to us before making any decisions.