Market Insights

GBP, EUR, USD in Focus: Politics, Inflation and Central Banks Keep FX Markets on Edge

GBP, EUR, USD in Focus: Politics, Inflation and Central Banks Keep FX Markets on Edge

Sterling steadies as UK political tensions ease, while persistent inflation and cautious central banks continue shaping GBP/EUR, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. We break down the key market drivers behind the latest currency moves.

The Stagflation Moment: Sticky Inflation, a Hawkish Bond Market, and Where the Fed Goes Next

The Stagflation Moment: Sticky Inflation, a Hawkish Bond Market, and Where the Fed Goes Next

Inflation is leaking into the data and the bond market is pricing Fed hikes, not cuts. We disagree. Why we still see one cut by December and what it means for sterling.

GBP EUR USD Outlook: Dollar Supported by Risk as Sterling Faces Political Pressure

GBP EUR USD Outlook: Dollar Supported by Risk as Sterling Faces Political Pressure

Dollar strength returns as geopolitical risk & rising oil support USD, while sterling faces growing political uncertainty. Here’s how to approach GBP, EUR, USD this week.

The Three Central Banks Have Spoken: What Yesterday Told Us About the Path Ahead

The Three Central Banks Have Spoken: What Yesterday Told Us About the Path Ahead

The Fed, ECB and BoE all held this week. The substance is in what each one signalled. Why the ECB is walking into a mistake, the Fed cuts later, and sterling stays well placed.

FX Market Outlook: Central Banks, Energy Inflation and EUR/USD, GBP Risks Ahead

FX Market Outlook: Central Banks, Energy Inflation and EUR/USD, GBP Risks Ahead

The Fed, ECB and BoE face the same inflation shock, but may respond differently. See how this policy “seesaw” is shaping EUR/USD and GBP moves.

The Three Central Banks: UAE, Stagflation and a Window for Dollar Sellers

The Three Central Banks: UAE, Stagflation and a Window for Dollar Sellers

The Fed, ECB and BoE all decide this week as the UAE quits OPEC and Brent breaks $115. Why the dollar's recent strength is a window for sellers, not a turn.

Sterling's Opening: Why the ECB May Be About to Make a Mistake

Sterling's Opening: Why the ECB May Be About to Make a Mistake

The ECB is signalling hikes into a weakening European economy. We think it's a mistake. Why this creates an asymmetric setup for sterling against the dollar and euro.

Beyond Hormuz: Why the Warsh Hearing and the US Rate Path Are Now Driving the Dollar

Beyond Hormuz: Why the Warsh Hearing and the US Rate Path Are Now Driving the Dollar

Why the Warsh confirmation hearing and the Fed's rate path are now the main drivers of dollar weakness, and what it means for GBP and EUR.

Hormuz Is Open, a Deal Is Close and The Dollar Is Falling

Hormuz Is Open, a Deal Is Close and The Dollar Is Falling

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open for all commercial vessels today. A $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal is on the table. Trump says a peace deal is very close. Here is what it means for GBP, EUR and USD.

FX Treasury Management Explained: How Businesses Manage Currency Risk, Liquidity, and Cash Flow

FX Treasury Management Explained: How Businesses Manage Currency Risk, Liquidity, and Cash Flow

FX treasury management explained. Learn how businesses manage currency risk, liquidity, and cash flow to protect margins and improve financial outcomes.

US Metal Tariffs, the COMEX Premium and What It Means for GBP and USD

US Metal Tariffs, the COMEX Premium and What It Means for GBP and USD

The biggest overhaul of US metal tariffs in years took effect on 6 April. Aluminium hit a four-year high. Two of the world's largest smelters are offline. Central banks are selling dollars and buying gold at historic pace. Here is what it means for UK businesses and GBP.

Sterling Rebounds on Gilt Demand and Dollar Weakness, But Structural Pressures Remain

Sterling Rebounds on Gilt Demand and Dollar Weakness, But Structural Pressures Remain

10-year UK gilt yields hit 4.91%, the highest since 2008. JPMorgan reported record trading revenues. The Fed is weeks from a new Chair. Here is what it means for GBP, EUR and USD.